Congress Swing TrackerLegislative intelligence Swing vote analysis

H.R. 1531: PROTECT Taiwan Act · Congress Swing Tracker

H.R. 1531119th CongressInternational Affairs

PROTECT Taiwan Act

Sponsored by Rep. Frank D. Lucas (R-OK) · 2 active : 1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Latest action: Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.

Read the summary

Where it standsPassed House, now in the Senate

Passed House

House: passedFeb 9, 2026
Senate: next
President: not yet

9 senators score as swing votes

Summary

, via Congress.gov

Summary on Congress.gov

Pressure Regulatory Organizations To End Chinese Threats to Taiwan Act or the PROTECT Taiwan Act

This bill requires certain federal entities to seek to exclude China from six international financial organizations if the President informs Congress that China's actions threaten Taiwan and pose a danger to U.S. interests.

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Specifically, the bill establishes that it is U.S. policy to seek to exclude Chinese representatives from participating in the activities of six international organizations if the President informs Congress that China's actions pose any (1) threat to Taiwan's security, economic system, or social system; and (2) danger to U.S. interests.

The six specified organizations are

the Group of Twenty,

the Bank for International Settlements,

the Financial Stability Board,

the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,

the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, and

the International Organization of Securities Commissions.

In the event that the President so informs Congress, the bill requires the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Securities and Exchange Commission to take all necessary steps to advance the exclusion policy.

The President may waive the application of this policy to an organization if doing so is in the national interest of the United States.

How the projections held up

Each member’s recorded vote compared with their swing projection from before the vote. A member by voting against most of their own party.

House

On Motion to Suspend the Rules and Pass, as AmendedPassed395 yea, 2 nayFebruary 9, 2026 · Roll call 58

How members in each band voted on this House vote, by their projection before the vote
BandBand before the vote	VotedVoted yea or nay	BrokeBroke with party	Share
Swing	47	0	0%
Middle	193	2	1%
Entrenched	155	0	0%
All

Committees and subjects

Committees

House Committee on Financial Services · HouseReported by · Markup by · Referred to
House Committee on Foreign Affairs · HouseDischarged from · Referred to
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations · SenateReferred to

Subjects

Asia
Banking and financial institutions regulation
China
Foreign and international banking
Presidents and presidential powers, Vice Presidents
Sanctions
Taiwan

Senate · 100 House · 433

Model

v3defaultv2

Directional: count only breaks toward the other party Why do scores change?

How the House breaks down

43Swing 70–100
205Middle 30–70
183Entrenched 0–30
2Insufficient data not ranked

Members fall into . 2 representatives don’t have enough data yet and are marked “insufficient data”. Non-voting delegates are not counted. The bill is not before the House right now; these scores show where members would stand.

Key players in the House

Ranked by swing score, 0–100 · swing-v2, directional

: only movement toward the other party counts, so members who sit further from the center than their party no longer score as swing votes.

Bars show each input from 0 to 100: ideology gap, scorecard gap, . is the seat’s partisan lean, and shows how much of the input data a score has.

Similar past votes, House

Earlier behind swing-v3’s input

Similar votes count toward swing-v3 in the House: total similarity weight 50.5 (needs 5.0).

H.R. 3334 · Sep 25, 2024 · Roll call 1170On PassageSTOP CCP Act
PassedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5947 · Apr 17, 2024 · Roll call 857On PassageTo provide for the rescission of certain waivers and licenses relating to Iran, and for other purposes
PassedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 6046 · Apr 17, 2024 · Roll call 855On PassageStanding Against Houthi Aggression Act
PassedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 682On PassageNo Funds for Iranian Terrorism Act
PassedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 681On Agreeing to the Amendment
FailedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 680On Agreeing to the Amendment
Agreed toShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 679On Agreeing to the Amendment
Agreed toShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 678On Agreeing to the Amendment
Agreed toShared subjects×1.0

Show 17 more

H.R. 5961 · Nov 30, 2023 · Roll call 677On Agreeing to the Amendment
Agreed toShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 3774 · Nov 3, 2023 · Roll call 593On Motion to Suspend the Rules and Pass, as AmendedSHIP Act
PassedShared subjects×1.0
H.R. 5334 · Sep 16, 2026 · Roll call 668On Motion to Concur in the Senate AmendmentsAn Act to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow early childhood educators to take the educator expense deduction, and for other purposes
PassedSame policy area×0.5
H.Con.Res. 93 · Sep 15, 2026 · Roll call 667On Agreeing to the ResolutionDirecting the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran

Cosponsors

2 active

Show all 2 cosponsors

Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX-34)
Michael Lawler (R-NY-17)

How the swing score works

Ideology gapHow far a member’s DW-NOMINATE voting score sits from their party’s median in the same chamber.

Scorecard gapHow far their Heritage Action and LCV ratings stray from their party’s average, using the groups’ votes on similar bills where available.

Cross-pressureHow strongly their district or state leans toward the other party, from our own computed partisan lean.

Similar votesHow often they voted against their own party on earlier roll calls about this bill or similar ones.

Committee bonusMembers of the committees handling the bill decide whether it moves, so they get a boost.

Cosponsor checkThe sponsor and active cosponsors have already committed, so they drop toward entrenched.